Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC

  1. Atlanta United FC42%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Toronto FC32%

1.53 expected goals for Atlanta United FC

1.63 expected goals for Toronto FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Atlanta United FC has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Toronto FC win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Toronto FC attack, which scores 12% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Atlanta United FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Atlanta United FC attack−8%
  3. Toronto FC defence+10%

Expected goals1.53

Toronto FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Toronto FC attack+12%
  2. Atlanta United FC defence+7%

Expected goals1.63

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.6 for Atlanta United FC and 4.1 for Toronto FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.6 for Atlanta United FC and 2.2 for Toronto FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

26.1 expected

15.4 for Atlanta United FC and 10.7 for Toronto FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

24.6 expected

12.0 for Atlanta United FC and 12.6 for Toronto FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.