Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Saturday 31 October, 16:00

San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake

  1. San Jose Earthquakes43%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Real Salt Lake31%

1.53 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes

1.56 expected goals for Real Salt Lake

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

San Jose Earthquakes has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Real Salt Lake win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the San Jose Earthquakes attack, which scores 15% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

San Jose Earthquakes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. San Jose Earthquakes attack+15%
  3. Real Salt Lake defence−12%

Expected goals1.53

Real Salt Lake

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Real Salt Lake attack+13%
  2. San Jose Earthquakes defence+2%

Expected goals1.56

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals37%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.1 for San Jose Earthquakes and 4.3 for Real Salt Lake

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for San Jose Earthquakes and 2.2 for Real Salt Lake

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

25.5 expected

12.9 for San Jose Earthquakes and 12.6 for Real Salt Lake

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

24.3 expected

11.8 for San Jose Earthquakes and 12.5 for Real Salt Lake

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 07:11 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.