Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Saturday 31 October, 14:00

St. Louis City vs San Diego

  1. St. Louis City55%
  2. Draw22%
  3. San Diego23%

2.76 expected goals for St. Louis City

1.82 expected goals for San Diego

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes St. Louis City the clear favourite: 55% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the St. Louis City attack, which scores 36% more goals than an average team. Next comes the San Diego defence, which lets in 34% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 76% chance, and both teams scoring, 75%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

St. Louis City

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. St. Louis City attack+36%
  3. San Diego defence+34%

Expected goals2.76

San Diego

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. San Diego attack+32%
  2. St. Louis City defence+1%

Expected goals1.82

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%
  2. Over 1.5 goals95%
  3. Over 2.5 goals76%
  4. Over 3.5 goals67%
  5. Over 4.5 goals48%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.0 for St. Louis City and 4.7 for San Diego

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.7 for St. Louis City and 2.2 for San Diego

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

28.1 expected

14.3 for St. Louis City and 13.9 for San Diego

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

25.6 expected

13.4 for St. Louis City and 12.2 for San Diego

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 02:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.