Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire

  1. Colorado Rapids41%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Chicago Fire31%

1.31 expected goals for Colorado Rapids

1.39 expected goals for Chicago Fire

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Colorado Rapids has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Chicago Fire win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Chicago Fire attack, which scores 21% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Colorado Rapids defence, which lets in 16% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Colorado Rapids

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Colorado Rapids attack−8%
  3. Chicago Fire defence−5%

Expected goals1.31

Chicago Fire

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Chicago Fire attack+21%
  2. Colorado Rapids defence−16%

Expected goals1.39

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.3 for Colorado Rapids and 4.1 for Chicago Fire

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Colorado Rapids and 2.4 for Chicago Fire

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

24.1 expected

12.9 for Colorado Rapids and 11.2 for Chicago Fire

  1. Over 20.5 shots69%
  2. Over 22.5 shots57%
  3. Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

26.2 expected

12.7 for Colorado Rapids and 13.5 for Chicago Fire

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls60%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.