Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Saturday 31 October, 16:00

Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin

  1. Los Angeles Galaxy47%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Austin27%

1.75 expected goals for Los Angeles Galaxy

1.45 expected goals for Austin

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Los Angeles Galaxy has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Austin win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Los Angeles Galaxy attack, which scores 11% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Los Angeles Galaxy

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Los Angeles Galaxy attack+11%
  3. Austin defence+5%

Expected goals1.75

Austin

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Austin attack−3%
  2. Los Angeles Galaxy defence+11%

Expected goals1.45

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.2 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 4.1 for Austin

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.7 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 2.1 for Austin

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

28.5 expected

17.7 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 10.8 for Austin

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

22.3 expected

10.6 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 11.8 for Austin

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls32%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 07:11 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.