Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders

  1. Vancouver Whitecaps50%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Seattle Sounders23%

1.51 expected goals for Vancouver Whitecaps

0.99 expected goals for Seattle Sounders

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Vancouver Whitecaps has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Seattle Sounders win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Vancouver Whitecaps defence, which lets in 27% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Vancouver Whitecaps attack, which scores 26% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Vancouver Whitecaps

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Vancouver Whitecaps attack+26%
  3. Seattle Sounders defence−21%

Expected goals1.51

Seattle Sounders

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Seattle Sounders attack−1%
  2. Vancouver Whitecaps defence−27%

Expected goals0.99

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

5.7 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 5.1 for Seattle Sounders

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners49%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 2.1 for Seattle Sounders

  1. Over 3.5 cards47%
  2. Over 4.5 cards28%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

26.6 expected

14.4 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 12.2 for Seattle Sounders

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

21.4 expected

10.1 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 11.3 for Seattle Sounders

  1. Over 20.5 fouls55%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls39%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.