Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC

  1. Los Angeles FC51%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Minnesota United FC23%

1.77 expected goals for Los Angeles FC

1.18 expected goals for Minnesota United FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Los Angeles FC has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Minnesota United FC win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Los Angeles FC defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Minnesota United FC attack, which scores 23% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Los Angeles FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Los Angeles FC attack+8%
  3. Minnesota United FC defence+9%

Expected goals1.77

Minnesota United FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Minnesota United FC attack+23%
  2. Los Angeles FC defence−29%

Expected goals1.18

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.2 for Los Angeles FC and 4.9 for Minnesota United FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.7 for Los Angeles FC and 2.2 for Minnesota United FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

27.1 expected

14.5 for Los Angeles FC and 12.6 for Minnesota United FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

22.4 expected

10.3 for Los Angeles FC and 12.1 for Minnesota United FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls32%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.