Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Saturday 31 October, 13:00

Columbus Crew vs DC United

  1. Columbus Crew60%
  2. Draw22%
  3. DC United18%

2.25 expected goals for Columbus Crew

0.94 expected goals for DC United

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Columbus Crew the clear favourite: 60% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Columbus Crew attack, which scores 28% more goals than an average team. Next comes the DC United attack, which scores 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Columbus Crew

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Columbus Crew attack+28%
  3. DC United defence+16%

Expected goals2.25

DC United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. DC United attack−18%
  2. Columbus Crew defence−16%

Expected goals0.94

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

6.0 for Columbus Crew and 4.2 for DC United

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.8 for Columbus Crew and 2.3 for DC United

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

29.9 expected

17.7 for Columbus Crew and 12.3 for DC United

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

23.6 expected

12.0 for Columbus Crew and 11.6 for DC United

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls57%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls42%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.