Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Saturday 31 October, 12:00

Charlotte vs Orlando City SC

  1. Charlotte52%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Orlando City SC26%

2.49 expected goals for Charlotte

1.86 expected goals for Orlando City SC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Charlotte has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Orlando City SC win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Orlando City SC attack, which scores 57% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Charlotte attack, which scores 35% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 73% chance, and both teams scoring, 74%. And about 10.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Charlotte

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Charlotte attack+35%
  3. Orlando City SC defence+22%

Expected goals2.49

Orlando City SC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Orlando City SC attack+57%
  2. Charlotte defence−13%

Expected goals1.86

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%
  3. Over 2.5 goals73%
  4. Over 3.5 goals63%
  5. Over 4.5 goals44%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

6.2 for Charlotte and 4.6 for Orlando City SC

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners49%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for Charlotte and 2.4 for Orlando City SC

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

31.5 expected

16.3 for Charlotte and 15.2 for Orlando City SC

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots87%
  3. Over 24.5 shots80%

Fouls

25.4 expected

13.1 for Charlotte and 12.4 for Orlando City SC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls81%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls69%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls55%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 00:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.