Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Wednesday 28 October, 21:30

Final score

Vancouver Whitecaps4-1San Diego

The model's most likely result happened: a Vancouver Whitecaps win (55%).

Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego

  1. Vancouver Whitecaps55%
  2. Draw23%
  3. San Diego22%

2.27 expected goals for Vancouver Whitecaps

1.35 expected goals for San Diego

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Vancouver Whitecaps the clear favourite: 55% to win. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance, and both teams scoring, 63%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals64%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals49%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals30%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.5 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 4.5 for San Diego

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 2.2 for San Diego

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

27.8 expected

16.7 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 11.1 for San Diego

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

24.7 expected

12.8 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 11.9 for San Diego

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 20:39 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.