Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Wednesday 28 October, 19:30

Final score

Austin1-2Real Salt Lake

The model gave this result 34%. Its most likely result was a Austin win (39%).

Austin vs Real Salt Lake

  1. Austin39%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Real Salt Lake34%

1.32 expected goals for Austin

1.55 expected goals for Real Salt Lake

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.7 for Austin and 4.4 for Real Salt Lake

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Austin and 2.3 for Real Salt Lake

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

26.8 expected

13.2 for Austin and 13.7 for Real Salt Lake

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

21.3 expected

11.0 for Austin and 10.2 for Real Salt Lake

  1. Over 20.5 fouls54%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls39%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls25%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 07:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.