Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Wednesday 28 October, 18:30

Final score

Charlotte4-0CF Montreal

The model's most likely result happened: a Charlotte win (55%).

Charlotte vs CF Montreal

  1. Charlotte55%
  2. Draw25%
  3. CF Montreal20%

2.01 expected goals for Charlotte

1.06 expected goals for CF Montreal

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Charlotte the clear favourite: 55% to win. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.4 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals37%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.7 for Charlotte and 4.6 for CF Montreal

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Charlotte and 2.3 for CF Montreal

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

30.8 expected

16.0 for Charlotte and 14.8 for CF Montreal

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots85%
  3. Over 24.5 shots78%

Fouls

23.5 expected

11.2 for Charlotte and 12.3 for CF Montreal

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.