Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Wednesday 28 October, 18:30

Final score

New England Revolution3-2New York Red Bulls

The model's most likely result happened: a New England Revolution win (49%).

New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls

  1. New England Revolution49%
  2. Draw27%
  3. New York Red Bulls24%

1.57 expected goals for New England Revolution

1.12 expected goals for New York Red Bulls

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

New England Revolution has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a New York Red Bulls win at 24%. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

5.8 for New England Revolution and 5.0 for New York Red Bulls

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners60%
  3. Over 10.5 corners50%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.8 for New England Revolution and 2.3 for New York Red Bulls

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

26.2 expected

13.1 for New England Revolution and 13.1 for New York Red Bulls

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

23.4 expected

10.5 for New England Revolution and 12.9 for New York Red Bulls

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.