Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Saturday 24 October, 19:30

Final score

Sporting Kansas City1-2Austin

The model gave this result 37%. Its most likely result was a Sporting Kansas City win (38%).

Sporting Kansas City vs Austin

  1. Sporting Kansas City38%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Austin37%

1.58 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City

2.00 expected goals for Austin

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance, and both teams scoring, 65%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals64%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals48%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals29%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.4 for Sporting Kansas City and 4.5 for Austin

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.8 for Sporting Kansas City and 2.0 for Austin

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

28.5 expected

16.6 for Sporting Kansas City and 11.9 for Austin

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

20.9 expected

10.7 for Sporting Kansas City and 10.3 for Austin

  1. Over 20.5 fouls52%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls36%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls23%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.