Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Saturday 24 October, 18:30

Final score

Atlanta United FC2-3Chicago Fire

The model gave this result 36%. Its most likely result was a Atlanta United FC win (37%).

Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire

  1. Atlanta United FC37%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Chicago Fire36%

1.26 expected goals for Atlanta United FC

1.60 expected goals for Chicago Fire

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.2 for Atlanta United FC and 4.4 for Chicago Fire

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Atlanta United FC and 2.2 for Chicago Fire

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

25.0 expected

13.4 for Atlanta United FC and 11.6 for Chicago Fire

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

24.8 expected

11.8 for Atlanta United FC and 12.9 for Chicago Fire

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.