Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Saturday 24 October, 12:30

Final score

CF Montreal0-2Nashville SC

The model's most likely result happened: a Nashville SC win (54%).

CF Montreal vs Nashville SC

  1. CF Montreal22%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Nashville SC54%

0.74 expected goals for CF Montreal

2.04 expected goals for Nashville SC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Nashville SC has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a CF Montreal win at 22%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.0 for CF Montreal and 4.7 for Nashville SC

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for CF Montreal and 2.0 for Nashville SC

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

28.0 expected

11.9 for CF Montreal and 16.1 for Nashville SC

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

23.9 expected

12.0 for CF Montreal and 11.8 for Nashville SC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.