Real Cartagena vs Real Cundinamarca
- Real Cartagena42%
- Draw29%
- Real Cundinamarca29%
1.23 expected goals for Real Cartagena
1.14 expected goals for Real Cundinamarca
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Real Cartagena has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Real Cundinamarca win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Real Cundinamarca attack, which scores 18% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Real Cundinamarca defence, which lets in 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Real Cartagena
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Real Cartagena attack−2%
- Real Cundinamarca defence−17%
Expected goals1.23
Real Cundinamarca
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Real Cundinamarca attack−18%
- Real Cartagena defence+2%
Expected goals1.14
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals90%
- Over 1.5 goals69%
- Over 2.5 goals41%
- Over 3.5 goals21%
- Over 4.5 goals9%
- Both teams score47%
- Real Cartagena or draw71%
- Draw or Real Cundinamarca59%
- No draw71%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.