Probably Football

Matches

Canadian Premier League (Canada)

Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC

  1. Supra du Quebec28%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Cavalry FC48%

1.30 expected goals for Supra du Quebec

2.08 expected goals for Cavalry FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Cavalry FC has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Supra du Quebec win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cavalry FC defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Cavalry FC attack, which scores 34% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Supra du Quebec

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Supra du Quebec attack+16%
  3. Cavalry FC defence−26%

Expected goals1.30

Cavalry FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Cavalry FC attack+34%
  2. Supra du Quebec defence+14%

Expected goals2.08

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals44%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.3 for Supra du Quebec and 4.2 for Cavalry FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.3 for Supra du Quebec and 2.5 for Cavalry FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards53%
  3. Over 5.5 cards36%

Shots

27.0 expected

14.7 for Supra du Quebec and 12.3 for Cavalry FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

26.0 expected

14.6 for Supra du Quebec and 11.4 for Cavalry FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls84%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls73%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls59%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.