Canadian Premier League (Canada)
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge
- Atlético Ottawa29%
- Draw26%
- Forge45%
0.96 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa
1.49 expected goals for Forge
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Forge has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Atlético Ottawa win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Forge defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.6 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Atlético Ottawa
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Atlético Ottawa attack−4%
- Forge defence−34%
Expected goals0.96
Forge
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Forge attack+5%
- Atlético Ottawa defence+5%
Expected goals1.49
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals71%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Over 3.5 goals23%
- Over 4.5 goals10%
- Both teams score52%
- Atlético Ottawa or draw55%
- Draw or Forge71%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.6 expected
5.3 for Atlético Ottawa and 4.3 for Forge
- Over 8.5 corners58%
- Over 9.5 corners47%
- Over 10.5 corners37%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.8 for Atlético Ottawa and 2.2 for Forge
- Over 3.5 cards57%
- Over 4.5 cards37%
- Over 5.5 cards21%
Shots
24.8 expected
10.4 for Atlético Ottawa and 14.3 for Forge
- Over 20.5 shots72%
- Over 22.5 shots61%
- Over 24.5 shots49%
Fouls
24.9 expected
12.1 for Atlético Ottawa and 12.8 for Forge
- Over 20.5 fouls78%
- Over 22.5 fouls65%
- Over 24.5 fouls51%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.