Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Uruguay)

Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud

  1. Liverpool Montevideo44%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Juventud25%

1.25 expected goals for Liverpool Montevideo

0.80 expected goals for Juventud

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Liverpool Montevideo has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Juventud win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Liverpool Montevideo defence, which lets in 37% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Juventud defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 40% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Liverpool Montevideo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Liverpool Montevideo attack+16%
  3. Juventud defence−29%

Expected goals1.25

Juventud

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Juventud attack−7%
  2. Liverpool Montevideo defence−37%

Expected goals0.80

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals86%
  2. Over 1.5 goals61%
  3. Over 2.5 goals40%
  4. Over 3.5 goals15%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.