Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Uruguay)

Albion FC vs Deportivo Maldonado

  1. Albion FC28%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Deportivo Maldonado45%

1.13 expected goals for Albion FC

1.60 expected goals for Deportivo Maldonado

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Deportivo Maldonado has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Albion FC win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Deportivo Maldonado defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Deportivo Maldonado attack, which scores 21% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Albion FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Albion FC attack+7%
  3. Deportivo Maldonado defence−30%

Expected goals1.13

Deportivo Maldonado

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Deportivo Maldonado attack+21%
  2. Albion FC defence−3%

Expected goals1.60

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.