Danubio vs Club Nacional
- Danubio25%
- Draw29%
- Club Nacional46%
0.82 expected goals for Danubio
1.37 expected goals for Club Nacional
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Club Nacional has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Danubio win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Danubio attack, which scores 28% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Club Nacional defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 40% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Danubio
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Danubio attack−28%
- Club Nacional defence−25%
Expected goals0.82
Club Nacional
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Club Nacional attack+29%
- Danubio defence−21%
Expected goals1.37
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals88%
- Over 1.5 goals65%
- Over 2.5 goals40%
- Over 3.5 goals18%
- Over 4.5 goals7%
- Both teams score48%
- Danubio or draw54%
- Draw or Club Nacional76%
- No draw71%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.