Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Uruguay)

Boston River vs Atletico Torque

  1. Boston River23%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Atletico Torque52%

1.06 expected goals for Boston River

1.84 expected goals for Atletico Torque

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Atletico Torque has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Boston River win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Atletico Torque attack, which scores 49% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Atletico Torque defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Boston River

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Boston River attack−5%
  3. Atletico Torque defence−26%

Expected goals1.06

Atletico Torque

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Atletico Torque attack+49%
  2. Boston River defence−9%

Expected goals1.84

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.