Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Uruguay)

Progreso vs Defensor Sporting

  1. Progreso39%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Defensor Sporting31%

1.27 expected goals for Progreso

1.07 expected goals for Defensor Sporting

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Progreso has the edge (39%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Defensor Sporting win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Progreso attack, which scores 14% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Progreso

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Progreso attack−14%
  3. Defensor Sporting defence−2%

Expected goals1.27

Defensor Sporting

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Defensor Sporting attack−11%
  2. Progreso defence−11%

Expected goals1.07

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.