Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Uruguay)

Saturday 31 October, 14:30

Penarol vs Wanderers

  1. Penarol59%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Wanderers17%

1.88 expected goals for Penarol

0.69 expected goals for Wanderers

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Penarol the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Penarol defence, which lets in 43% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Penarol attack, which scores 27% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Penarol

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Penarol attack+27%
  3. Wanderers defence−2%

Expected goals1.88

Wanderers

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Wanderers attack−11%
  2. Penarol defence−43%

Expected goals0.69

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 02:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.