Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Uruguay)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Cerro vs Central Espanol

  1. Cerro38%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Central Espanol32%

1.20 expected goals for Cerro

1.04 expected goals for Central Espanol

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cerro attack, which scores 22% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Central Espanol attack, which scores 21% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Cerro

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Cerro attack−22%
  3. Central Espanol defence+3%

Expected goals1.20

Central Espanol

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Central Espanol attack−21%
  2. Cerro defence−4%

Expected goals1.04

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals66%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.