Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Uruguay)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo

  1. Racing Montevideo41%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Cerro Largo27%

1.09 expected goals for Racing Montevideo

0.79 expected goals for Cerro Largo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Racing Montevideo has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 32% and a Cerro Largo win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Racing Montevideo defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Cerro Largo defence, which lets in 24% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Racing Montevideo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Racing Montevideo attack−4%
  3. Cerro Largo defence−24%

Expected goals1.09

Cerro Largo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Cerro Largo attack−17%
  2. Racing Montevideo defence−30%

Expected goals0.79

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals84%
  2. Over 1.5 goals57%
  3. Over 2.5 goals39%
  4. Over 3.5 goals12%
  5. Over 4.5 goals4%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.