Volga Ulyanovsk vs Chertanovo Moscow
- Volga Ulyanovsk47%
- Draw25%
- Chertanovo Moscow28%
1.64 expected goals for Volga Ulyanovsk
1.05 expected goals for Chertanovo Moscow
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Volga Ulyanovsk has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Chertanovo Moscow win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Chertanovo Moscow defence, which lets in 30% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Volga Ulyanovsk attack, which scores 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Volga Ulyanovsk
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Volga Ulyanovsk attack−17%
- Chertanovo Moscow defence+30%
Expected goals1.64
Chertanovo Moscow
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Chertanovo Moscow attack−15%
- Volga Ulyanovsk defence−9%
Expected goals1.05
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Over 3.5 goals28%
- Over 4.5 goals14%
- Both teams score48%
- Volga Ulyanovsk or draw72%
- Draw or Chertanovo Moscow53%
- No draw75%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.