Probably Football

Matches

Cup (Russia)

Spartak Kostroma vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya

  1. Spartak Kostroma38%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Volna Nizhegorodskaya31%

1.17 expected goals for Spartak Kostroma

0.92 expected goals for Volna Nizhegorodskaya

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence, which lets in 20% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Spartak Kostroma defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 38% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Spartak Kostroma

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Spartak Kostroma attack−3%
  3. Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence−20%

Expected goals1.17

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack−17%
  2. Spartak Kostroma defence−18%

Expected goals0.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%
  3. Over 2.5 goals38%
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.