Union Comercio vs Minas
- Union Comercio39%
- Draw30%
- Minas31%
1.13 expected goals for Union Comercio
1.24 expected goals for Minas
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Union Comercio has the edge (39%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Minas win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Union Comercio defence, which lets in 17% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Minas defence, which lets in 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Union Comercio
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Union Comercio attack−12%
- Minas defence−15%
Expected goals1.13
Minas
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Minas attack+10%
- Union Comercio defence−17%
Expected goals1.24
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals90%
- Over 1.5 goals69%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Over 3.5 goals21%
- Over 4.5 goals9%
- Both teams score50%
- Union Comercio or draw69%
- Draw or Minas62%
- No draw70%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.