Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Bolivia)

Guabirá vs Bolívar

  1. Guabirá19%
  2. Draw11%
  3. Bolívar70%

1.02 expected goals for Guabirá

2.92 expected goals for Bolívar

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Bolívar the clear favourite: 70% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bolívar attack, which scores 62% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Bolívar defence, which lets in 33% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 68% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Guabirá

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Guabirá attack+2%
  3. Bolívar defence−33%

Expected goals1.03

Bolívar

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Bolívar attack+62%
  2. Guabirá defence+32%

Expected goals2.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals91%
  3. Over 2.5 goals68%
  4. Over 3.5 goals55%
  5. Over 4.5 goals36%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.5 for Guabirá and 4.9 for Bolívar

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

5.1 expected

2.6 for Guabirá and 2.5 for Bolívar

  1. Over 3.5 cards74%
  2. Over 4.5 cards57%
  3. Over 5.5 cards39%

Shots

29.6 expected

12.8 for Guabirá and 16.7 for Bolívar

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

23.8 expected

12.2 for Guabirá and 11.7 for Bolívar

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.