Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Bolivia)

Saturday 31 October, 16:15

ABB vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo

  1. ABB43%
  2. Draw23%
  3. San Antonio Bulo Bulo34%

1.46 expected goals for ABB

1.78 expected goals for San Antonio Bulo Bulo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

ABB has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a San Antonio Bulo Bulo win at 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the ABB defence, which lets in 50% more goals than an average team. Next comes the ABB attack, which scores 16% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 8.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

ABB

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. ABB attack−16%
  3. San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence+15%

Expected goals1.46

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack−12%
  2. ABB defence+50%

Expected goals1.78

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.7 expected

4.3 for ABB and 4.3 for San Antonio Bulo Bulo

  1. Over 8.5 corners48%
  2. Over 9.5 corners37%
  3. Over 10.5 corners28%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.7 for ABB and 2.1 for San Antonio Bulo Bulo

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards53%
  3. Over 5.5 cards35%

Shots

27.1 expected

13.1 for ABB and 14.0 for San Antonio Bulo Bulo

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

25.9 expected

13.7 for ABB and 12.2 for San Antonio Bulo Bulo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls72%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls58%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 04:37 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.