Friday 30 October, 19:00
Oriente Petrolero vs Aurora
- Oriente Petrolero57%
- Draw24%
- Aurora19%
1.71 expected goals for Oriente Petrolero
1.23 expected goals for Aurora
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Oriente Petrolero
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Oriente Petrolero attack+14%
- Aurora defence−1%
Expected goals1.71
Aurora
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Aurora attack+1%
- Oriente Petrolero defence−11%
Expected goals1.22
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Over 3.5 goals34%
- Over 4.5 goals17%
- Both teams score55%
- Oriente Petrolero or draw81%
- Draw or Aurora43%
- No draw76%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.2 expected
5.5 for Oriente Petrolero and 4.7 for Aurora
- Over 8.5 corners64%
- Over 9.5 corners53%
- Over 10.5 corners43%
Cards
4.8 expected
2.3 for Oriente Petrolero and 2.5 for Aurora
- Over 3.5 cards71%
- Over 4.5 cards53%
- Over 5.5 cards36%
Shots
29.4 expected
17.0 for Oriente Petrolero and 12.4 for Aurora
- Over 20.5 shots88%
- Over 22.5 shots81%
- Over 24.5 shots72%
Fouls
29.3 expected
16.2 for Oriente Petrolero and 13.0 for Aurora
- Over 20.5 fouls94%
- Over 22.5 fouls87%
- Over 24.5 fouls78%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 07:11 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.