Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 14:00

Varea vs FC Andorra

  1. Varea20%
  2. Draw14%
  3. FC Andorra66%

1.37 expected goals for Varea

1.94 expected goals for FC Andorra

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Varea

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Varea attack−8%
  3. FC Andorra defence−1%

Expected goals1.37

FC Andorra

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Andorra attack+22%
  2. Varea defence+17%

Expected goals1.94

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.