Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete
- Calvo Sotelo27%
- Draw15%
- Albacete58%
1.45 expected goals for Calvo Sotelo
1.56 expected goals for Albacete
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Albacete the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Calvo Sotelo defence, which lets in 13% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Calvo Sotelo
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Calvo Sotelo attack−1%
- Albacete defence−3%
Expected goals1.45
Albacete
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Albacete attack+1%
- Calvo Sotelo defence+13%
Expected goals1.56
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Over 3.5 goals36%
- Over 4.5 goals19%
- Both teams score50%
- Calvo Sotelo or draw42%
- Draw or Albacete72%
- No draw85%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.