Portugalete vs Real Unión
- Portugalete33%
- Draw15%
- Real Unión52%
1.45 expected goals for Portugalete
1.31 expected goals for Real Unión
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Real Unión has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 15% and a Portugalete win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is playing at home, which adds 11% to the goals of Portugalete. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 10.1 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Portugalete
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Portugalete attack−6%
- Real Unión defence+2%
Expected goals1.45
Real Unión
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Real Unión attack−2%
- Portugalete defence−2%
Expected goals1.31
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Over 3.5 goals30%
- Over 4.5 goals15%
- Both teams score49%
- Portugalete or draw48%
- Draw or Real Unión67%
- No draw84%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.1 expected
6.1 for Portugalete and 4.0 for Real Unión
- Over 8.5 corners63%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
3.3 expected
1.2 for Portugalete and 2.1 for Real Unión
- Over 3.5 cards43%
- Over 4.5 cards24%
- Over 5.5 cards12%
Shots
25.5 expected
14.5 for Portugalete and 11.1 for Real Unión
- Over 20.5 shots76%
- Over 22.5 shots65%
- Over 24.5 shots53%
Fouls
21.9 expected
11.5 for Portugalete and 10.4 for Real Unión
- Over 20.5 fouls59%
- Over 22.5 fouls43%
- Over 24.5 fouls29%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.