Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 13:00

Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC

  1. Poblense35%
  2. Draw15%
  3. AD Ceuta FC50%

1.72 expected goals for Poblense

1.51 expected goals for AD Ceuta FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Poblense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Poblense attack−3%
  3. AD Ceuta FC defence+18%

Expected goals1.72

AD Ceuta FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. AD Ceuta FC attack−5%
  2. Poblense defence+17%

Expected goals1.51

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.