Tuesday 27 October, 14:00
Final score (on penalties)
Llanera1-1Ponferradina
The model gave this result 15%. Its most likely result was a Ponferradina win (62%).
Llanera vs Ponferradina
- Llanera23%
- Draw15%
- Ponferradina62%
1.24 expected goals for Llanera
1.56 expected goals for Ponferradina
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes Ponferradina the clear favourite: 62% to win. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 11.1 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Over 3.5 goals31%
- Over 4.5 goals15%
- Both teams score49%
- Llanera or draw38%
- Draw or Ponferradina77%
- No draw85%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
11.1 expected
4.5 for Llanera and 6.6 for Ponferradina
- Over 8.5 corners71%
- Over 9.5 corners62%
- Over 10.5 corners52%
Cards
3.5 expected
1.3 for Llanera and 2.2 for Ponferradina
- Over 3.5 cards45%
- Over 4.5 cards27%
- Over 5.5 cards14%
Shots
29.1 expected
10.7 for Llanera and 18.4 for Ponferradina
- Over 20.5 shots87%
- Over 22.5 shots79%
- Over 24.5 shots70%
Fouls
23.8 expected
12.2 for Llanera and 11.6 for Ponferradina
- Over 20.5 fouls72%
- Over 22.5 fouls58%
- Over 24.5 fouls43%
Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.