Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 14:00

Laredo vs Burgos

  1. Laredo12%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Burgos73%

0.83 expected goals for Laredo

1.71 expected goals for Burgos

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Laredo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Laredo attack−7%
  3. Burgos defence−41%

Expected goals0.83

Burgos

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Burgos attack−2%
  2. Laredo defence+28%

Expected goals1.71

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.