Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 14:00

Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijon

  1. Guijuelo24%
  2. Draw16%
  3. Sporting Gijon60%

1.18 expected goals for Guijuelo

1.42 expected goals for Sporting Gijon

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Guijuelo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Guijuelo attack−7%
  3. Sporting Gijon defence−16%

Expected goals1.18

Sporting Gijon

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sporting Gijon attack+5%
  2. Guijuelo defence−1%

Expected goals1.42

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.6 for Guijuelo and 4.0 for Sporting Gijon

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

5.4 expected

2.6 for Guijuelo and 2.8 for Sporting Gijon

  1. Over 3.5 cards79%
  2. Over 4.5 cards63%
  3. Over 5.5 cards46%

Shots

20.7 expected

9.6 for Guijuelo and 11.1 for Sporting Gijon

  1. Over 20.5 shots49%
  2. Over 22.5 shots36%
  3. Over 24.5 shots25%

Fouls

22.6 expected

12.3 for Guijuelo and 10.4 for Sporting Gijon

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls49%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.