Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Badajoz vs Tenerife

  1. Badajoz28%
  2. Draw17%
  3. Tenerife55%

1.11 expected goals for Badajoz

1.14 expected goals for Tenerife

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Tenerife the clear favourite: 55% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Tenerife attack, which scores 19% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Tenerife defence, which lets in 19% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Badajoz

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Badajoz attack−9%
  3. Tenerife defence−19%

Expected goals1.11

Tenerife

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Tenerife attack−19%
  2. Badajoz defence+4%

Expected goals1.14

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals66%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.