Thursday 29 October, 13:00
Atlético Baleares vs Eldense
- Atlético Baleares46%
- Draw16%
- Eldense38%
1.63 expected goals for Atlético Baleares
1.08 expected goals for Eldense
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Atlético Baleares
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Atlético Baleares attack+12%
- Eldense defence−4%
Expected goals1.63
Eldense
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Eldense attack−3%
- Atlético Baleares defence−18%
Expected goals1.08
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Over 3.5 goals29%
- Over 4.5 goals14%
- Both teams score47%
- Atlético Baleares or draw62%
- Draw or Eldense55%
- No draw84%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.3 expected
4.6 for Atlético Baleares and 4.6 for Eldense
- Over 8.5 corners55%
- Over 9.5 corners44%
- Over 10.5 corners34%
Cards
4.3 expected
1.9 for Atlético Baleares and 2.4 for Eldense
- Over 3.5 cards62%
- Over 4.5 cards43%
- Over 5.5 cards26%
Shots
22.1 expected
11.4 for Atlético Baleares and 10.7 for Eldense
- Over 20.5 shots58%
- Over 22.5 shots45%
- Over 24.5 shots33%
Fouls
27.1 expected
13.0 for Atlético Baleares and 14.1 for Eldense
- Over 20.5 fouls88%
- Over 22.5 fouls78%
- Over 24.5 fouls66%
Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.