Anaitasuna vs Alaves
- Anaitasuna14%
- Draw14%
- Alaves72%
1.20 expected goals for Anaitasuna
2.05 expected goals for Alaves
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Alaves the clear favourite: 72% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Alaves defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Alaves attack, which scores 58% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.2 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Anaitasuna
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Anaitasuna attack+27%
- Alaves defence−38%
Expected goals1.20
Alaves
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Alaves attack+58%
- Anaitasuna defence−4%
Expected goals2.05
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Over 3.5 goals41%
- Over 4.5 goals23%
- Both teams score50%
- Anaitasuna or draw28%
- Draw or Alaves86%
- No draw86%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.2 expected
5.0 for Anaitasuna and 4.2 for Alaves
- Over 8.5 corners54%
- Over 9.5 corners43%
- Over 10.5 corners34%
Cards
3.6 expected
1.5 for Anaitasuna and 2.1 for Alaves
- Over 3.5 cards49%
- Over 4.5 cards30%
- Over 5.5 cards16%
Shots
25.5 expected
13.3 for Anaitasuna and 12.2 for Alaves
- Over 20.5 shots76%
- Over 22.5 shots65%
- Over 24.5 shots53%
Fouls
23.4 expected
10.6 for Anaitasuna and 12.9 for Alaves
- Over 20.5 fouls70%
- Over 22.5 fouls55%
- Over 24.5 fouls40%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.