Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés

  1. Amorebieta30%
  2. Draw19%
  3. UD Logroñés51%

0.91 expected goals for Amorebieta

0.84 expected goals for UD Logroñés

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

UD Logroñés has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 19% and a Amorebieta win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the UD Logroñés attack, which scores 40% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Amorebieta attack, which scores 27% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 30% chance, and both teams scoring, 36%. And about 8.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Amorebieta

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Amorebieta attack−27%
  3. UD Logroñés defence−18%

Expected goals0.91

UD Logroñés

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. UD Logroñés attack−40%
  2. Amorebieta defence+3%

Expected goals0.84

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals82%
  2. Over 1.5 goals53%
  3. Over 2.5 goals30%
  4. Over 3.5 goals10%
  5. Over 4.5 goals3%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

5.1 for Amorebieta and 3.8 for UD Logroñés

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners30%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for Amorebieta and 2.4 for UD Logroñés

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

24.6 expected

14.7 for Amorebieta and 9.9 for UD Logroñés

  1. Over 20.5 shots72%
  2. Over 22.5 shots60%
  3. Over 24.5 shots48%

Fouls

27.5 expected

14.3 for Amorebieta and 13.2 for UD Logroñés

  1. Over 20.5 fouls89%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls80%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls68%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.