Alcoyano vs Mallorca
- Alcoyano14%
- Draw15%
- Mallorca71%
0.98 expected goals for Alcoyano
1.69 expected goals for Mallorca
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Mallorca the clear favourite: 71% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Mallorca defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Mallorca attack, which scores 23% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 9.8 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Alcoyano
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Alcoyano attack+22%
- Mallorca defence−47%
Expected goals0.98
Mallorca
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Mallorca attack+23%
- Alcoyano defence+1%
Expected goals1.69
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals75%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Over 3.5 goals28%
- Over 4.5 goals13%
- Both teams score47%
- Alcoyano or draw29%
- Draw or Mallorca86%
- No draw85%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.8 expected
4.8 for Alcoyano and 5.0 for Mallorca
- Over 8.5 corners60%
- Over 9.5 corners49%
- Over 10.5 corners39%
Cards
5.6 expected
2.8 for Alcoyano and 2.8 for Mallorca
- Over 3.5 cards81%
- Over 4.5 cards66%
- Over 5.5 cards49%
Shots
26.0 expected
11.7 for Alcoyano and 14.3 for Mallorca
- Over 20.5 shots78%
- Over 22.5 shots67%
- Over 24.5 shots56%
Fouls
31.1 expected
16.3 for Alcoyano and 14.8 for Mallorca
- Over 20.5 fouls96%
- Over 22.5 fouls92%
- Over 24.5 fouls86%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.