Probably Football

Matches

FA Cup (Scotland)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Threave Rovers vs Pollok

  1. Threave Rovers32%
  2. Draw11%
  3. Pollok57%

1.73 expected goals for Threave Rovers

2.43 expected goals for Pollok

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Pollok the clear favourite: 57% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Pollok attack, which scores 42% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Threave Rovers defence, which lets in 26% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 76% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Threave Rovers

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Threave Rovers attack+21%
  3. Pollok defence−5%

Expected goals1.73

Pollok

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Pollok attack+42%
  2. Threave Rovers defence+26%

Expected goals2.43

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals92%
  3. Over 2.5 goals76%
  4. Over 3.5 goals60%
  5. Over 4.5 goals40%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.