Saturday 31 October, 10:00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic
- Hill Of Beath Hawthorn41%
- Draw14%
- Musselburgh Athletic45%
1.62 expected goals for Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.59 expected goals for Musselburgh Athletic
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 45%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Musselburgh Athletic attack, which scores 19% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Hill Of Beath Hawthorn attack, which scores 15% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 67% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Hill Of Beath Hawthorn attack+15%
- Musselburgh Athletic defence−7%
Expected goals1.62
Musselburgh Athletic
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Musselburgh Athletic attack+19%
- Hill Of Beath Hawthorn defence−2%
Expected goals1.59
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Over 3.5 goals40%
- Over 4.5 goals22%
- Both teams score55%
- Hill Of Beath Hawthorn or draw55%
- Draw or Musselburgh Athletic60%
- No draw86%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.