Probably Football

Matches

Pernambucano - 1 (Brazil)

Pesqueira vs Porto

  1. Pesqueira53%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Porto19%

1.69 expected goals for Pesqueira

0.99 expected goals for Porto

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Pesqueira has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Porto win at 19%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Porto attack, which scores 25% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Porto defence, which lets in 22% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Pesqueira

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Pesqueira attack−8%
  3. Porto defence+22%

Expected goals1.69

Porto

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Porto attack−25%
  2. Pesqueira defence−3%

Expected goals0.99

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.