1º de Maio vs Afogados
- 1º de Maio51%
- Draw28%
- Afogados21%
1.64 expected goals for 1º de Maio
1.07 expected goals for Afogados
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
1º de Maio has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Afogados win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Afogados attack, which scores 25% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Afogados defence, which lets in 15% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
1º de Maio
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- 1º de Maio attack−6%
- Afogados defence+15%
Expected goals1.64
Afogados
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Afogados attack−25%
- 1º de Maio defence+4%
Expected goals1.07
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Over 3.5 goals29%
- Over 4.5 goals14%
- Both teams score51%
- 1º de Maio or draw79%
- Draw or Afogados49%
- No draw72%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.