Saturday 31 October, 13:00
Centro Limoeirense vs Atlético PE
- Centro Limoeirense40%
- Draw30%
- Atlético PE30%
1.34 expected goals for Centro Limoeirense
1.18 expected goals for Atlético PE
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Centro Limoeirense has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Atlético PE win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is playing at home, which adds 11% to the goals of Centro Limoeirense. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Centro Limoeirense
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Centro Limoeirense attack−5%
- Atlético PE defence−7%
Expected goals1.34
Atlético PE
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Atlético PE attack−6%
- Centro Limoeirense defence−7%
Expected goals1.18
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals72%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Over 3.5 goals25%
- Over 4.5 goals11%
- Both teams score51%
- Centro Limoeirense or draw70%
- Draw or Atlético PE60%
- No draw70%
Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.